Evaluation of Smart Technology Transfer Scenarios and Economic Plan in the Optimal Cultivation with the Approach of System Dynamics

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

2 PhD in Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

10.22111/innoeco.2025.49429.1106

Abstract

The increasing demand for water, the limitation of water resources and climate change have endangered life and the quality of water resources. The low efficiency of water consumption in the agricultural sector has led to the adoption of optimal cultivation model strategies and intelligent irrigation technology. Therefore, it has made it necessary to consume water, especially in water-scarce areas such as Iran. Saffron can be a suitable product in terms of saving water consumption. The purpose of this study is to simulate and investigate the effect of smart technology transfer and economic program in the optimal cultivation of saffron crop in Qaenat with the approach of system dynamics in the years 2015-2036. In this study, using the systems dynamics approach, a comprehensive and dynamic model was developed to evaluate different management policies and help decision-making at the macro levels of water resources management. A dynamic system model has been developed for the dynamic modeling of water resources in Qaenat city with the help of Vensim software. The results of the tests indicate that the model is consistent with reality and the behavior of the model is consistent with the behavior of the system in reality. According to the statistical tests, between the observed and simulated values for the storage level variable of Farrokhi Dam, the coefficient of determination is equal to 0.81, the root mean square error (RMSE) is equal to 0.23 and the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion. It is equal to 0.79 in 2023. According to the statistical tests, between the observed and simulated values for the storage level variable of Farrokhi Dam, the coefficient of determination is equal to 0.81, the root mean square error (RMSE) is equal to 0.23 and the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion. It is equal to 0.79 in 2023.

Keywords